This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Unlikely Push for Glory

Just two months in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the reason of Villa's wider issues.

This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?

It remains an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have piled up.

Per the data, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a team which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to save the day with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.

The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

• The main striker could start scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.