Elections Underway in Holland as Surveys Suggest Potential Second Victory for Geert Wilders

Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.